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Simulation of Water Level Fluctuations in Kettle Holes Using a Time Series Model

In English

Författare

  • Dörte Lehsten
  • Jos R. von Asmuth
  • Michael Kleyer

Summary, in English

Kettle holes are widespread in moraine landscapes. Their hydrological properties may be very vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. To increase our knowledge of how kettle holes function and how they may be affected by climate change requires a model that can be applied to a variety of them regardless of their properties. We used the PIRFICT time series model to simulate the water levels in kettle holes over the last 50 years. For model calibration we applied time series of two-year lengths. We observed correlations between climate indices and water level statistics with a delayed response of one year. The results show a decrease in autumn low water levels and an increase in water level fluctuations. These effects correspond to observed increased summer evaporation and winter precipitation, and imply that the habitat quality dynamic of kettle holes depends on climatic conditions. With the prognosis of even warmer and dryer summers in Europe in the future, conservation strategies for kettle holes should include the effects of climate change.

Publiceringsår

2011

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

511-520

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Wetlands

Volym

31

Issue

3

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Springer

Ämne

  • Physical Geography

Nyckelord

  • Climate change
  • Hydrology
  • PIRFICT model
  • Pond
  • Pool

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 0277-5212