Subspace-Based Model Identification of Diabetic Blood Glucose Dynamics

In English Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic desease characterized by the inability of the organism to autonomously regulate the blood glucose level due to insulin deficiency or resistance, thus leading to serious health damages. In order to keep tight glucose control treatment happens to be based essentially on insulin delivery. In common practice, a main limiting factor in adequate choice of insulin dosing is the lack of reliable predictions of blood glucose evolution. In this work, state-space models of various orders were investigated and evaluated for their capability of description of one diabetic subject blood glucose evolution over 24 hours. It turned out that models of low complexity are capable of detecting even abrupt changes in calibration data but they are not sufficient for validation data. Blood glucose levels could be predicted up to 30 minutes ahead on validation data.