Meny

Du är här

A method for climate and vegetation reconstruction through the inversion of a dynamic vegetation model

Författare:
Publiceringsår: 2010
Språk: Engelska
Sidor: 371-389
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie: Climate Dynamics
Volym: 35
Nummer: 2-3
Dokumenttyp: Artikel
Förlag: Springer

Sammanfattning

Climate reconstructions from data sensitive to past climates provide estimates of what these climates were like. Comparing these reconstructions with simulations from climate models allows to validate the models used for future climate prediction. It has been shown that for fossil pollen data, gaining estimates by inverting a vegetation model allows inclusion of past changes in carbon dioxide values. As a new generation of dynamic vegetation model is available we have developed an inversion method for one model, LPJ-GUESS. When this novel method is used with high-resolution sediment it allows us to bypass the classic assumptions of (1) climate and pollen independence between samples and (2) equilibrium between the vegetation, represented as pollen, and climate. Our dynamic inversion method is based on a statistical model to describe the links among climate, simulated vegetation and pollen samples. The inversion is realised thanks to a particle filter algorithm. We perform a validation on 30 modern European sites and then apply the method to the sediment core of Meerfelder Maar (Germany), which covers the Holocene at a temporal resolution of approximately one sample per 30 years. We demonstrate that reconstructed temperatures are constrained. The reconstructed precipitation is less well constrained, due to the dimension considered (one precipitation by season), and the low sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to precipitation changes.

Disputation

Nyckelord

  • Earth and Environmental Sciences
  • LPJ-GUESS
  • Pollen sample
  • vegetation model
  • Dynamic
  • Particle filter
  • Palaeoclimate reconstruction
  • Model inversion

Övriga

Published
  • MERGE
  • BECC
Yes
  • ISSN: 0930-7575

Box 117, 221 00 LUND
Telefon 046-222 00 00 (växel)
Telefax 046-222 47 20
lu [at] lu [dot] se

Fakturaadress: Box 188, 221 00 LUND
Organisationsnummer: 202100-3211
Om webbplatsen