A Meta-Analysis of Bottom-Up Ex-Ante Energy Efficiency Policy Evaluation Studies
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie: International Energy Program Evaluation Conferences
Förlag: International Energy Program Evaluation
Energy efficiency ex-ante policy evaluation is commonly, but not exclusively, concerned with the simulation and modelling of policy instruments and resulting technological change. Using the residential sector as case study, the paper provides a meta-analysis of models and modelling exercises and scrutinise their relevance for the field of energy efficiency policy evaluation. The methodology of study is based on: identification of modelling methodologies, selection of case studies, and cross-case analysis. We identify four types of ex-ante methodological modelling categories: simulation, optimisation, accounting and hybrid models. The analysis shows that modelling exercises have impact evaluation as their main research goal. Market and behavioural imperfections are often not explicitly captured and sometimes the use of implicit discount rates is identified to address this critical issue. Regarding modelled policy instruments, the majority of the cases focus on regulatory aspects (e.g. minimum performance standards, building codes). For the rest, evaluations focus on economically-driven policy instruments which are represented through technical factors and costs of measures. Informative policy instruments were identified as being much less modelled. Regarding modelling outcomes, studies are very context-specific so no generalisations can be made. The findings confirm some of the criticism and flaws related to bottom-up energy-economy modelling tools. At the same time, the study stresses that, albeit imperfectly, well-formulated energy modelling tools provide valuable frameworks for organising complex and extensive end-use data. Findings strongly suggest that there is no single-best method to evaluate (residential) energy efficiency policy instruments. Potential research areas to further advance energy-economy models are identified.
- Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
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