The Dynamics of conflict in Southern Thailand : An analysis of Spatial and Socio- Economic Factors

In English The present paper argues that the prolonged insurgency in southern Thailand has gone through changes since the outbreak of major violence in 2004. An analysis of the dynamics of the conflict, and its relation to economic and social factors, can improve our understanding of the drivers of conflict. A key finding is that the bulk of the violence has shifted from poor rural districts to more affluent urban centers. The shift could reflect a shift in strategic focus of focus on the urban population on behalf of the insurgency after successfully achieving control over large parts of the rural population during the initial phase of the conflict.