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Poll of polls: A compositional loess model

In English

Författare

Summary, in English

A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to get an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the compositional sample space (the simplex). The method is easily implemented and the estimate may be computed in linear time. We provide an example with Swedish data from year 2007 to 2010. The method also allows us to present the deviations between the estimated compositions and the observed. In the

data set, we note e.g. differences between different polling institutes.

Publiceringsår

2014

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

301-310

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Scandinavian Journal of Statistics

Volym

41

Issue

2

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Wiley-Blackwell

Ämne

  • Probability Theory and Statistics

Nyckelord

  • party preferences
  • compositional weighted least sum of squares
  • simplex
  • smoothing

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1467-9469