Do Oil Prices Predict Economic Growth? New Global Evidence
Författare
Summary, in English
In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.
Publiceringsår
2014
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
137-146
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Energy Economics
Volym
41
Issue
January
Länkar
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Elsevier
Ämne
- Economics
Nyckelord
- Economic growth
- Predictability
- Oil price
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 0140-9883