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From probabilistics to determinism: an essay on risk assessment and decisionmaking in sociotechnical systems

In English

Författare

  • Gustaf Östberg

Summary, in English

Probabilistic analysis is the usual starting point for sociotechnical risk assessments aimed at deciding whether or not a particular risk is acceptable. However, the available probabilistic evidence is usually insufficient as a basis for such decisions, and so the assessment has to be supplemented by a judgemental process of a more deterministic nature. This concluding phase in decisionmaking is essentially non-rational, involving amongst other things intuition and image formation. The conceptual incompatibility between the final stage in risk assessment and the preceding probabilistic analysis means that it is not possible to arrive at an overall quantitative account of the decisionmaking process.

Publiceringsår

2004

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

96-109

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Interdisciplinary Science Reviews

Volym

29

Issue

1

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Maney Publishing

Ämne

  • Applied Mechanics

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 0308-0188