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Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models

In English

Författare

  • Sophie Rickebusch
  • Wilfried Thuiller
  • Thomas Hickler
  • Miguel B. Araujo
  • Martin Sykes
  • Oliver Schweiger
  • Bruno Lafourcade

Summary, in English

The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.

Publiceringsår

2008

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

556-559

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Biology letters

Volym

4

Issue

5

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Royal Society Publishing

Ämne

  • Physical Geography

Nyckelord

  • ensemble forecasting
  • BIOMOD
  • soil water content
  • CO2 effect
  • habitat models
  • climate change

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1744-9561