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Robust decision-making under severe uncertainty for conservation management

Författare

  • H M Regan
  • Y Ben-Haim
  • B Langford
  • W G Wilson
  • Per Lundberg
  • S J Andelman
  • M A Burgman

Summary, in English

In-conservation biology it is necessary to make management decisions for endangered and threatened species under severe uncertainty. Failure to acknowledge and treat uncertainty can lead to poor decisions. To illustrate the importance of considering uncertainty, we reanalyze a decision problem for the Sumatran rhino, Dicerorhinus sumatrensis, using information-gap theory to propagate uncertainties and to rank management options. Rather than requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset, information-gap theory addresses the question of how much uncertainty can be tolerated before our decision would change. It assesses the robustness of decisions in the face of severe uncertainty. We show that different management decisions may result when uncertainty in utilities and probabilities are considered in decision-making problems. We highlight the importance of a full assessment of uncertainty in conservation management decisions to avoid, as much as possible, undesirable outcomes.

Publiceringsår

2005

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

1471-1477

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Ecological Applications

Volym

15

Issue

4

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Ecological Society of America

Ämne

  • Biological Sciences

Status

Published

Forskningsgrupp

  • Theoretical Population Ecology and Evolution Group

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1051-0761