Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of a Multi-Factor Jump Diffusion Model for Power Prices
Författare
Summary, in English
In this paper we generalize the electricity spot price model of Lucia and Schwartz by a two-factor model with jumps and stochastic volatility. We estimate the model on daily spot price data from the Nordic market using an approach that combines traditional statistical methods with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results show that the model captures most of the trajectorial and the statistical characteristics of the electricity spot price. Further, we find that the inclusion of stochastic volatility is crucial to separate spikes from the normal price process. Moreover, we estimate that the correlation between the spot price and its stochastic volatility is negative.
Avdelning/ar
Publiceringsår
2008
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
65-90
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Journal of Energy Markets
Volym
1
Issue
4
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Incisive Media
Ämne
- Economics
Nyckelord
- stochastic volatility
- spot price
- electricity markets
- spikes
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 1756-3615