STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME SEA WATER LEVELS AT THE FALSTERBO PENINSULA, SOUTH SWEDEN
Författare
Summary, in Swedish
Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme
storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South
Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above
normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas
have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the
flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the
Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from Skanör, Klagshamn,
and Ystad are analysed with General Extreme Value and General Pareto Distribution models to estimate sea
levels with return periods of 100–500 years. The estimated return period of the 1872 event, based on these
models, resulted in an unrealistically low probability. To better understand the statistical behaviour of extreme
storm surges of this magnitude on the Swedish south coast, development of more advanced statistical models
will be required.
storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South
Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above
normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas
have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the
flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the
Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from Skanör, Klagshamn,
and Ystad are analysed with General Extreme Value and General Pareto Distribution models to estimate sea
levels with return periods of 100–500 years. The estimated return period of the 1872 event, based on these
models, resulted in an unrealistically low probability. To better understand the statistical behaviour of extreme
storm surges of this magnitude on the Swedish south coast, development of more advanced statistical models
will be required.
Avdelning/ar
- Matematisk statistik
- Avdelningen för Teknisk vattenresurslära
- Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Modelling Group
Publiceringsår
2016-09-07
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
129-144
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Vatten: tidskrift för vattenvård /Journal of Water Management and research
Volym
2016
Issue
2
Länkar
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Föreningen Vatten
Ämne
- Probability Theory and Statistics
- Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Nyckelord
- Extreme sea levels, Coastal flooding, The Falsterbo Peninsula, South Baltic Sea, General Extreme Value distribution, General Pareto Distribution, Backafloden, 1872 storm surge
- Extreme sea levels
- Coastal flooding
- The Falsterbo Peninsula
- South Baltic Sea
- General Extreme Value distribution
- General Pareto Distribution
- Backafloden
- 1872 storm surge
Status
Published
Forskningsgrupp
- Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Modelling Group
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 0042-2886