Credit-Implied Forward Volatility and Volatility Expectations
Författare
Summary, in English
We show how one can back out implied forward volatility term structures from credit default swap spreads. Such forward stock volatility term structures are useful for instance in forward start option pricing. We find the term structure to be downward-sloping, and the credit market's volatility forecasts tend to vary more across time than across maturities. Long-term volatility expectations, in turn, are found to be low and stable while short-term expectations are higher and more volatile. The volatility expectation’s mean-reversion rate, finally, indicates that the credit market expects volatility shocks in the equity market to last for several years.
Avdelning/ar
Publiceringsår
2015
Språk
Engelska
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Working Paper / Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University
Issue
34
Länkar
Dokumenttyp
Working paper
Förlag
Department of Economics, Lund University
Ämne
- Economics
Nyckelord
- forward start options
- forward volatility
- implied volatility term structure
Status
Published