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Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

In English

Författare

Summary, in English

A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south-western Norway. The physical interpretation of the forecasting skill is that stations close to the Norwegian coast are directly exposed to prevailing winds from the Atlantic ocean, which constitute the principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on the seasonal timescale.

Publiceringsår

2008

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

17-26

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Hydrology Research

Volym

39

Issue

1

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

IWA Publishing

Ämne

  • Water Engineering

Nyckelord

  • neural networks
  • statistic
  • model output
  • general circulation model
  • downscaling
  • forecasting

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1998-9563