Simulating Regional Vegetation-climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

Summary, in English

Regional vegetation-climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation-climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ-GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ-GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r=0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over-simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non-parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.

• Författare: Rebecca S. Snell; Sharon A. Cowling; Benjamin Smith
• Avdelning/ar: Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap; MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system; BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
• Publiceringsår: 2013
• Språk: Engelska
• Sidor: 567-577
• Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie: Biotropica
• Volym: 45
• Issue: 5
• Länkar: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/btp.12054
• Dokumenttyp: Artikel i tidskrift
• Förlag: Wiley-Blackwell
• Ämne: Physical Geography
• Nyckelord: fire dynamics; Kappa statistic; leaf area index; LPJ-GUESS; plant; functional types; remote-sensing; tropical and arid ecosystems
• Status: Published
• ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt: ISSN: 0006-3606