Visibility of the environmental noise modulating population dynamics
Författare
Summary, in English
Characterizing population fluctuations and their causes is a major theme in population ecology. The debate is on the relative merits of density-dependent and density-independent effects. One paradigm (revived by the research on global warming and its relation to long-term population data) states that fluctuations in population densities can often be accounted for by external noise. Several empirical models have been suggested to support this view Mt followed this by assuming a given population skeleton dynamics (Ricker dynamics and second-order autoregressive dynamics) topped off with noise composed of low- and high-frequency components. Our aim was to determine to what extent the modulated population dynamics correlate with the noise signal. High correlations (with time-lag -1) were observed with both model categories in the region of stable dynamics, but not in the region of periodic or complex dynamics. This finding is not very sensitive to low-frequency noise. High correlations throughout the entire range of dynamics are only achievable when the impact of the noise is very high. Fitted parameter values of skeleton dynamics modulated with noise are prone to err substantially. This casts doubt as to what degree the underlying dynamics are any more recognizable after being modulated hv the external noise.
Publiceringsår
2000
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
1851-1856
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
Volym
267
Issue
1455
Fulltext
- Available as PDF - 220 kB
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Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Royal Society Publishing
Ämne
- Biological Sciences
Status
Published
Forskningsgrupp
- Theoretical Population Ecology and Evolution Group
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 1471-2954