A decomposition approach to evaluating the progress of the New Green Economy

Författare

Luis Mundaca
Brian Cloughley

Summary, in English

Various policy instruments and policy reforms are being implemented to encourage Green Growth and Green Economy. However, comprehensive ex-post evaluation policy methods have yet to be developed. The emerging literature shows that there is substantial ambiguity and discrepancy about how to measure the performance of policy instruments driving a Green Economy in general and, in our case, a Green Energy Economy (GEE) in particular. Observed methodologies have tended to measure progress according to expenditure on green initiatives as a proportion of GDP. This paper aims to move beyond this by applying an approach that gives consideration to policy and economy-wide aspects that drive, or have an impact on, energy production and carbon emissions. The core methodology is based on a macro decomposition analysis using an empirical quantitative approach. It is supported by correlation and regression analyses and framed by both policy-oriented research and policy evaluation. To achieve this, time-series data from the International Energy Agency are used. The analysis is applied to three countries, Sweden, the UK and China. Then, the proposed methodology is preliminarily assessed against the following criteria: (1) policy compatibility, (2) reliability and (3) measurability. The focus is on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

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