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Strategiskt spelande för en positiv avkastning

In English

Författare

  • Jesper Wallman
  • Sebastian Demmler

Summary, in Swedish

This study compiles a total of five statistical models of how to predict the probable outcome in football games in the German football league, the Bundesliga. The models are based on quantitative historical data from 1683 games and estimate probabilities of the outcomes home win (1), draw (X) and away win (2). The purpose of the study is to test whether a more accurate prediction can be formulated with increased historical data added to the models. From this we examine if these statistical models can outperform the probabilities generated by the gambling company Digibet. It is further tested whether the models through strategic gambling may generate a positive return. The models used are based on an ordered-probit regression with 13 variables. In conclusion, the study shows that more historical statistical data results in a more appropriate model for prediction. However, there is no evidence to demonstrate that the statistical models can predict probabilities better than Digibet. A final conclusion is that applying strategic gambling in accordance with the model can generate a positive return.

Publiceringsår

2012

Språk

Svenska

Dokumenttyp

Examensarbete för kandidatexamen

Ämne

  • Mathematics and Statistics

Nyckelord

  • Odds
  • Bundesliga
  • Ordered-probit
  • Predict and Strategic gambling
  • Probability

Handledare

  • Björn Holmquist (Professor)