Does Practical deliberation Crowd Out Self-Prediction?

Författare

Wlodek Rabinowicz

Summary, in English

It is a popular view that practical deliberation excludes foreknowledge of one’s choice. Wolfgang Spohn and Isaac Levi have argued that not even probabilistic self-prediction is available to the deliberator, if subjective probabilities are conceptually linked to betting rates. It does not make sense to have a betting rate for an option, since one’s willingness to bet depends in this case on the option’s utility in combination with the net gain from the bet, rather than on the offered odds. Even apart from this consideration, assigning probabilities to one’s options is futile since such probabilities could be of no possible use in choice. The paper subjects these arguments to critical examination and suggests that, appearances notwithstanding, practical deliberation might well involve predictions about its outcome.

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