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QRA with respect to domino effects and property damage


  • Mathias Lööf
  • Leo Kardell

Summary, in English

In 1996 the European Union adopted the Seveso II Directive. The Directive stated actions to
be taken in the process industry in order to prevent and limit the impact of serious chemical
accidents. In the Directive it is clearly stated that domino effects shall be considered, but the
level of detail required is not specified. Due to that fact and the high degree of complexity
linked to domino effects, these aspects are mostly dealt with in a qualitative manner. Such
approach leads to subjective assessments and is highly dependent on simplified assumptions,
leading to results that may be questionable. Thus, it would be beneficial to develop a method
that incorporates the risk of domino effects in a quantitative risk analysis (QRA), which has
been the aim of this thesis. The method was developed based on a literature review of existing
research. Focus was on integrating domino effects as a natural part of a QRA without
compromising the timeframe associated to a QRA. The developed method has been applied in
a case study of an oil refinery in order to evaluate how well it is applicable in practise. During
the case study, the method has proven to enable the risk of property damage with regard to
domino effects to be quantitatively analysed. The results from the case study, evidence the
importance of taking domino effects into consideration in QRAs, as the risk may be
underestimated if not.


  • Technology and Engineering


  • Alexander Cedergren
  • Henrik Hassel